The La Niña phenomenon re-established itself in the spring of 2021 and remains active through the summer of 2022. In January 2022, La Niña will help keep rainfall above average over the north-central part of the country and below average over part of the southern region. .
The month begins the formation of a new event in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (ZCAS), but this time with an axis positioned over the central areas of the Midwest and Southeast of Brazil, favoring more frequent and voluminous rain over Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, part of São Paulo, Goiás, Federal District.
With La Niña established, the south of the country remains with irregular rain. In the other regions, rain should be regular and voluminous, with accumulations above the historical average.
Episode 100 of the O Clima entre Nós podcast discusses the climate in Brazil in January 2022. Climatempo meteorologists Josélia Pegorim and Celso Oliveira analyze the impacts of ZCAS and La Niña throughout the month.
All episodes of the O Clima entre Nós podcast can be listened to on the Climatempo website and on the main audio platforms. You can also watch the videocasts on Climatempo’s Youtube channel.
Check below the complete climate trend in January 2022 for each Region in Brazil.
With La Niña dominating weather patterns, rainfall is likely to remain erratic in the south of the country. Over the weeks, the rain increases in intensity, with the second fortnight being a little more frequent in much of the Region. Accumulated figures should be slightly above average in Paraná and below average in other areas of southern Brazil. It is very hot, especially in Rio Grande do Sul and in the interior of Santa Catarina and Paraná.
With the increase in rainfall in the South between the second half of January and the first half of February, part of the crops may have a relief, especially those who planted later.
Moisture fluxes will slowly migrate to the southernmost areas of the Region. Therefore, rain must be frequent and voluminous in most of the states. Only the north of Minas Gerais should have reduced rainfall throughout the month. The monthly accumulated will be above the average in the four states. The temperature should be a little above average, but the heat only happens in short periods of 3 to 4 days.
Rain will also be more frequent on the coast of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, with the risk of lightning and storms. In Minas Gerais and in the north of Rio de Janeiro there is a risk to the head of the water due to the heavy and persistent rain.
The frequent formation of humidity corridors keeps the rainy weather in the Midwest during this month of January. The rain happens regularly and frequently in Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Federal District. In Mato Grosso do Sul, the frequency of rain events increases throughout the month and the second half of January promises to be quite rainy, which could delay harvesting and harm producing areas.
The total rainfall must be above average for most of the Region. The temperature should be a little below average due to the persistence of rainy days.
The month of January will be marked by rain above the average in the Northeast of Brazil. An early approximation of the ZCIT (Intertropical Convergence Zone) is noted in early 2022, as a result of the temperature in the North Atlantic higher than normal on the coast.
Bahia continues with above-average rain forecast for January. We will have some heavy rain events throughout the month, but the worst rain is over.
Even areas in the east of the Region, which are usually dry in January, will have rainfall above the historical average. The heat will be more intense than usual between Rio Grande do Norte and Alagoas. On the other hand, the temperature will be close to or even slightly below the historical average in Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará and Bahia.
Above average rainfall over most areas of the Region, with greater deviations over Tocantins, Pará and Amapá. The ZCIT (Intertropical Convergence Zone) approaches Brazil earlier than normal, in early 2022. The heat will be less intense than normal, especially in the Manaus region and west of Pará.
The temperatures of the Pacific Ocean are below the climatological average. The pocket of cooler-than-average waters is large enough and intense enough to be characterized as a new La Niña event. The water is also colder than normal at depth, which supports the maintenance of this La Niña until the end of summer 2022.