The most recent bulletin released by the National Electric System Operator (ONS) signals that the Brazilian energy load should register an increase of 1.8% in January 2022, when compared to the same month in 2021.
In absolute values, the National Interconnected System (SIN), which encompasses all regions of the country, forecasts a demand of 72,600 megawatts (MW) for January 2022. The increase in energy demand in Brazil shows a recovery in the economy . However, the high cost of light and the escalation in inflation can harm the good numbers predicted by the ONS.
According to the Operator’s report, the country’s reservoirs should also present a recovery in water volume in January. The forecast is that the plants in the Southeast/Midwest will record 37% of their maximum capacity for the first month of 2022. In September 2021, the reservoirs in the regions had the worst performance in the last 91 years, when they had only 16% of the Total volume. The other three subsystems in the country should also show an increase.
The positive scenario for the energy load in the country is foreseen for three subsystems in Brazil. They are the North, South and Northeast regions. The forecast for January for each subsystem is an increase in energy demand of 5.8%, 5.5% and 2%, respectively. The Southeast/Midwest states remain with stable demand, with an estimated load of 42,123 MW.
The load projections, released by the ONS, show that the economic recovery and the resumption of consumption among Brazilians are the main factors for the possible increase in the country’s energy demand, since with the immunization against Covid-19 it advances each time more in Brazil. The greater use of electronic devices in the summer, such as air conditioning, may also emerge as another factor for the increase in energy load.
Increase in the level of reservoirs
The forecast is that the reservoirs, located in the North and Northeast subsystems of Brazil, will be fuller in January. While mills in the North should reach 85.7% of their maximum capacity by the end of the month, the Northeast may register a volume of 72.5%. In the Southeast/Midwest region, the level will be 37% and the South will register 34%.
The country’s water recovery, according to the ONS report, takes place because of the beginning of the wet season in the country, when the volume of rain is usually greater, to the detriment of other times of the year. In January, the North and Northeast have rainfall forecast above the historical average. In the Southeast/Midwest subsystem, a rainfall level close to the average is estimated, at 96%. The outlook in the South is 40%.