2021 facts that will influence the presidential race

2021 facts that will influence the presidential race
2021 facts that will influence the presidential race

Political, legislative and judicial movements that took place in politics in 2021 set the stage for the 2022 elections and will have great influence in the races for the presidency, Congress and state governments.

One of the most significant events of 2021 was the return of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) to the presidential race, after the Federal Supreme Court (STF) annulled the PT’s judgments arising from Operation Lava Jato, which had prevented him contesting the elections in 2018.

Electoral rules, jurisprudence and the entry of new names into the political arena will also have their weight. Check out five facts from 2021 that will affect the 2022 elections:

1. Moro’s affiliation to Podemos

Former Lava Jato judge Sergio Moro entered politics once and for all in 2021, and promises to mess with the presidential race in 2022. By joining Podemos on November 10, Moro launched himself as a pre-candidate for Palácio do Planalto , positioning itself, according to political analysts, as the most viable option among those presented so far by the center and center-right parties.

To improve his position and face the two most popular presidential candidates, former president Lula (PT) and president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), Moro is seeking to increase his repertoire on topics beyond fighting corruption. In this sense, it is making contact with names that should make up its campaign team, such as the former president of the Central Bank Affonso Celso Pastore, chosen for the economic area.

Moro also seeks to get closer to the political class. The task may not be an easy one, as he has amassed foes during the years he worked as a judge at Lava Jato. But it is necessary because it will need the support of other parties to leverage an eventual candidacy.

Podemos is holding dialogues with leaders of União Brasil – a party that will result from the merger between DEM and PSL and that still needs to be ratified by the Electoral Court. It also seeks a rapprochement with former president Michel Temer, of the MDB – who, despite having launched senator Simone Tebet as a pre-candidate for the presidency, is talking about alliances with other acronyms.

Moro has already nodded to the political class, saying that “there are good people in the Center” and that he does not rule out the possibility of making alliances with most parties and politicians.

The former Lava Jato judge also met with other pre-candidates for the presidency to discuss the possibility of a unified third way. He believes he can head a single center slate if his assessment in opinion polls is better than that of other candidates throughout 2022. For that, his strategy is to win votes from center-right voters who, in 2018, went to Jair Bolsonaro, focusing on the anti-corruption and liberal economy agendas.

The entry of the former Lava Jato judge into politics will provide an arsenal for the PT’s campaign for the Presidency, which will seek to glue this fact to the PT narrative that the Lava Jato was a judicial persecution of the party and of former president Lula. But at the same time, it will place fighting corruption at the center of the electoral debate – along with other important issues such as the pandemic and the economy – and a constant reminder to the former president of the corruption crimes that took place during his administration. broken.

2. Jurisprudence and TSE regulations

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE), upon revoking the mandate of state deputy Fernando Francischini (from Paraná), set a precedent that could support possible actions against the candidacy for reelection of President Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 elections.

The TSE ministers considered that, by saying on their social networks on election day that there was vote manipulation in two ballot boxes that had technical failure, Francischini spread “fake news” about the voting system and committed abuse of power for having invoked immunity parliamentary.

The decision could spill over into Bolsonaro’s candidacy in 2022 because parties and other candidates may file suits that seek the president’s ineligibility because of his comments about voting machines during a live internet broadcast in July 2021. They will, though. , which justify why this would affect next year’s presidential race. Bolsonaro is the target of an investigation by the Federal Supreme Court (STF), suspected of spreading “fraudulent news about the conduct of STF ministers and against the voting system in Brazil”, after he presented, in a live, accusations of fraud in elections past without providing evidence.

Still in the context of fake news, the TSE issued a resolution that punishes the broadcasting, by anyone, of “known untruthful facts” that affect the integrity of the electoral process, including the processes of voting, counting and totaling of votes, in order to influence voters and news containing insults, slander or defamation in order to benefit candidates, parties, federations or coalitions. The dissemination of false news can be punished with imprisonment from two months to one year and payment of a fine.

Incorporating principles of the General Data Protection Law (LGPD), the TSE also prohibited advertising by mass shooting in messaging applications such as WhatsApp without the recipient’s consent.

3. Lula back in the running for the 2022 elections

Barred from contesting the 2018 elections because of a second-instance conviction for corruption in a Lava Jato case, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) will be free to contest the 2022 elections thanks to a Supreme Court decision Federal (STF) of April 2021.

By eight votes to three, the justices of the Court understood that the 13th Federal Court of Curitiba was “incompetent” – that is, not able – to judge the cases against the PT, as it did not exist, in the opinion of the STF, a direct relationship between them and the corruption cases at Petrobras, which were under the jurisdiction of former judge Sergio Moro.

With this, all sentences issued by the Federal Court of Curitiba in the Lava Jato processes involving Lula were annulled, including in the case of the Guarujá triplex. With the judgments of first instance annulled, those of the second instance also lost their effect. And Lula, having been convicted in the second degree in the triplex case, became ineligible in 2018.

The PT has already started a publicity offensive recounting its victories in court, indicating that Lula was “notified” in 22 cases. These victories should be his main trump card in the 2022 campaign and, together with the STF decision that considered Moro impartial in the triplex process, will be used to say that there was a judicial persecution of the former president.

4. Creation of party federations, novelty of the 2022 elections

The 2022 election will be the first federal-level election without party coalitions for legislative disputes. Their return was even debated by Congress in 2021, but it was not successful. What was approved, however, was an alternative to coalitions: party federations.

They are a new legal device that allows parties to unite and act as if they were a single party association. The main difference in relation to coalitions is that, under the federation, the parties must act together, both in the election and in the legislature, remaining affiliated to the federation for at least four years.

The law determines that federations will have national coverage and must respect the rules that govern the activities of political parties with regard to elections, “including with regard to the choice and registration of candidates for majority and proportional elections, collection and application of resources in electoral campaigns, electoral propaganda, counting of votes, obtaining seats, rendering accounts and summoning substitutes”.

Federated parties will retain their name, initials, number, affiliates, and access to resources from the Party Fund or from the Special Fund for Campaign Financing (FEFC), the Electoral Fund.

In the assessment of political analyst Lucas Fernandes, from BMJ Consultoria, party federations should behave like a caucus and, therefore, the approval of this instrument should not be detrimental to governability.

The change, already regulated by the TSE, will benefit small parties that ran the risk of not reaching the necessary electoral coefficients to elect their parliamentarians on their own.

5. Merger of PSL and DEM to create União Brasil

Another major political movement in 2021 was the merger of the PSL and the DEM into a new acronym that will be called União Brasil and that will adopt the number 44 in the ballot boxes. The new party, which has yet to be approved by the TSE, will be the largest caucus in Congress and will have a great weight in the alliances for the disputes of governors and president in 2022, as it will have the largest share of public electoral funding and the longest time. of free advertising on radio and television.

Recognizing the importance of the new acronym, the president of the PSDB, Bruno Araújo, has already said that União Brasil “maybe is the player more important in the consolidation of alliances that can place a candidate in the second round with Lula or Bolsonaro”.

The party will have wide coverage throughout the country and it is estimated that it should have candidates for governor in around ten states. With organized platforms, it will be an important ally to boost a presidential candidacy.

6. Bolsonaro in PL

President Jair Bolsonaro’s main electoral movement in 2021 was his affiliation with the Liberal Party (PL), the acronym for the Centrão, which has the third largest bench in the Chamber of Deputies.

After two years without a party, Bolsonaro – who was courted by the PTB, PP, Patriota and Republicans throughout 2021 – joined the same house as deputy Marco Feliciano, who was one of his great allies in the 2018 elections. his son Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator from Rio de Janeiro who was affiliated with Patriota, and Rogério Marinho, minister of Regional Development, who intends to compete for a seat in the Senate next year in Rio Grande do Norte.

With this definition, the president and his allies have more basis to articulate regional alliances and define candidacies for Congress and state governments. The Republicans and the PP must also be on the side of Bolsonaro in the 2022 elections – although there is resistance to these acronyms in the Northeast. With them, the president will get more free advertising time on radio and television and more resources from public campaign financing. The PTB, despite having been rejected by Bolsonaro, should remain closed with the president.

7. The “conquest” of the PSDB by Doria; and its effects on the 2022 elections

Two movements that took place in the PSDB throughout 2021 were also important: the victory of the governor of São Paulo, João Doria, in the caucuses to decide the candidate for president of the party and the departure of Geraldo Alckmin from the acronym.

The PSDB preview process was tumultuous from beginning to end. During the campaign, the internal rifts were evident in public verbal confrontations between supporters of Doria and those of Eduardo Leite, governor of Rio Grande do Sul and main opponent of São Paulo in the caucuses. On election day, a problem with the voting application delayed the winner’s announcement by a week.

Doria’s victory displeased wings of the party and culminated with the departure of Geraldo Alckmin from the party. One of the founders of the PSDB, the former presidential candidate already had a disagreement with the governor of São Paulo. After the split, Alckmin is considering running as Lula’s vice-presidential candidate, for the PSB or PSD.

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