Samara SchwingelAna Isabel Mansur
posted on 01/01/2022 06:24
(credit: Caio Gomez)
The combination of an election year and the World Cup is nothing new, but, in 2022, it will be the first time that these events will be added to another event that affects not only Brazil but the world: the covid-19 pandemic. In the Federal District, residents must be aware of the triple scenario. The disease killed at least 11,107 thousand people and infected 519,546,000 in the federal capital. For the national and district election, there are about 2.1 million eligible voters to participate. It adds to the context the expectation of return or not of the Carnival parties, whose realization, in the DF, is still under analysis. Specialists interviewed by the Mail talk about what can change in the year that starts and what the population’s behavior should be.
The sociology professor at the University of Brasília (UnB) Sadi Dal Rosso believes that it will not be possible to dissociate the economic scenario from the social situation. “Inflation, employment and wages are elements that will have repercussions in the next year. The DF is very affected by unemployment, with a standard above the level of large metropolises”, he compares. The unemployment rate in the DF reaches 16.1%, according to the Planning Company of the Federal District (Codeplan).
Dal Rosso highlights the relationship between health, football and politics. “The World Cup will be the ideological element of next year. It will arouse passions and spirits and will have an electoral impact. Another element that will be relevant in the next elections is covid-19, with the delay in the purchase of vaccines, which reaped thousands of This bill will be charged and will not go unpunished; it will have a social impact”, he analyses.
Before the World Cup and elections, in chronological order, the first event on the calendar would be Carnival. At the end of 2021, when he canceled the New Year’s celebrations due to the omicron variant of the covid-19, Governor Ibaneis Rocha (MDB) stated that the party of the Momo King would also undergo an evaluation. The secretary of Culture at the DF, Bartolomeu Rodrigues, told the article that, so far, there is nothing defined about the holding or not of public festivities this year.
The authorities’ concern with the health crisis is legitimate. According to the infectologist and president of the Infectious Diseases Society of the Federal District, José Davi Urbaez, a respiratory virus cannot be underestimated. “For now, there is nothing to suggest that we are free of the pandemic. On the contrary, with omicron, the forecast is that we will have an escalation of cases in 2022, without a doubt”, he considers. The doctor says that it is still necessary to comply with non-pharmacological prevention measures and immunize the population, including booster doses. “With the vaccination, we hope that this wave of omicron is not as big as the first wave of covid-19. With the reinforcement of the immunization, this effect can be even smaller”, he comments.
The DF enters 2022 with a pandemic situation considered controlled. According to the latest epidemiological bulletin from the Health Department, the capital registered 200 new cases and did not count deaths. The baud rate was at 0.88. The dominant strain of the disease follows as the delta. The omicron, last variant to appear, counts 26 occurrences. Even with the air of a positive scenario, in the assessment of Breno Adaid, a researcher at the Iesb University Center and a PhD in Administration and a post-doctorate from the University of Brasília (UnB) in behavioral science, it is necessary to pay attention to the first months of the year.
“The omicron tends to double the number of cases every two or three days. That’s what happened in all other countries and should happen here too. With that, the forecast is that, in mid-January, we will have a high number of cases and, thus, a high demand for hospitals, even if people are not hospitalized”, he says. However, he explains that, with the advance of vaccination, the trend is that, after the first quarter of the year, the situation will improve. “Everything that goes up, goes down. As of March, we should have an excellent stabilization of the pandemic. The expectation is optimistic”, he completes.
The 2022 election is scheduled for October 2nd. Of the 146.5 million Brazilians with electoral titles up to date with the Superior Electoral Court, 1.43% — or 2,108,301 — reside in the federal capital. The value is equivalent to 69% of the total population of the DF. The deadline for obtaining the voter registration card is May 4th. So far, there are four pre-candidates for the Buriti Palace dispute. They are: Rosilene Corrêa (PT), Leandro Grass (Network), Izalci Lucas (PSDB) and Rafael Parente (PSB), in addition to the current manager, Ibaneis Rocha (MDB).
Political scientist and lawyer Rafael Favetti claims that, in Brazil, there is a tradition of reelection. “For the states and the Federal District, three issues weigh on the electorate’s decision: works, health and public safety”, he assesses. In the federal capital, the specialist believes that there is still no concrete opposition to the current administration. “Politicians have until April to choose the parties which, in turn, have until July to launch candidacies. However, the longer it takes, the less solid alliances they can form”, he adds.